The United States' Renewed Engagement in Central Asia: Great-Power Competition after Russia's Attacks on Ukraine

Abstract

The research delves into the strategic, geopolitical, and economic motivations
behind the shift in U.S policy towards Central Asia. It examines the new wave of
U.S involvement in Central Asia after 2022 and assesses its implications for
regional security, connectivity, and evolving great-power dynamics. The research
is qualitative, and employs document analysis of primary and secondary sources
published between 2014-2025. Primary sources include U.S Strategy for Central
Asia 2019-2025, the 2023 C5+1 Leaders' Joint Statement (New York Declaration),
and the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue. Secondary sources include peerreviewed academic literature and policy reports. Thematic analysis is categorized
into three interconnected subthemes of geostrategic competition, energy security,
and counter-terrorism. Findings of the research identify four strategic drivers of
U.S. re-engagement with the region: opening alternative trade routes (such as the
Middle Corridor), enforcing and monitoring sanctions against Russia, diversifying
access beyond Russia's sphere of influence, and securing access to critical mineral
resources. Concurrently, Central Asian states have sought to to pursue a ‘multivector' foreign policy, which enables them to hedge among competing alliances
while maintaining their sovereignty without displeasing neighbouring great
powers. However, in Central Asia, where there is a multitude of overlapping
interests, unilateral strategic prescriptions are unlikely to succeed. Rather, the most
viable means of promoting regional stability are sustained multilateralism,
economic engagement, and a policy of mutual accommodation within the context
of a changing multiplex orde